Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.330256 22.055824 23.917442 26.085054 28.552233 31.288061 34.572286
2025-08-31 17.397947 19.726003 22.409644 25.770294 29.921799 34.958831 41.655648
2025-09-07 15.400907 18.044462 21.248880 25.499109 31.116713 38.486154 49.250310
2025-09-14 13.976850 16.803991 20.371246 25.332276 32.279426 42.051027 57.647539
2025-09-21 12.807216 15.715195 19.504276 24.983062 33.040475 45.091294 65.972331
2025-09-28 12.311801 15.426802 19.623250 25.947491 35.760685 51.498234 81.587911
2025-10-05 11.555291 14.700811 19.043419 25.794394 36.711984 55.224844 93.680592
2025-10-12 10.933492 14.099328 18.567098 25.712526 37.723267 59.214602 107.762451
2025-10-19 10.506303 13.731880 18.385254 26.045724 39.451005 64.864568 127.986325
2025-10-26 10.009490 13.222809 17.940722 25.891659 40.276879 68.927233 146.423737
2025-11-02 9.534218 12.710962 17.446639 25.593123 40.776922 72.415353 165.300607
2025-11-09 9.178390 12.352699 17.159896 25.609525 41.866131 77.459647 192.303861
2025-11-16 8.786188 11.922520 16.738198 25.365906 42.446774 81.599323 220.124332
2025-11-23 8.427557 11.524110 16.340726 25.127981 43.011359 85.905582 252.996259
2025-11-30 8.099578 11.155005 15.965502 24.892948 43.548052 90.331365 291.715396
2025-12-07 7.814099 10.836968 15.652888 24.742725 44.247279 95.454203 341.271194
2025-12-14 7.518287 10.487203 15.264151 24.409707 44.483062 99.338578 390.724215
2025-12-21 7.460078 10.514140 15.516138 25.343623 47.836593 114.200459 549.688730
2025-12-28 7.228756 10.247210 15.240520 25.196496 48.543788 120.669489 665.141572
2026-01-04 7.023736 10.013719 15.009254 25.117715 49.414583 128.159297 824.948362
2026-01-11 6.891710 9.894572 14.973214 25.439816 51.392308 140.912112 1138.214392
2026-01-18 6.699720 9.666150 14.726318 25.291011 52.079009 148.848055 1455.166400
2026-01-25 6.499727 9.416032 14.426510 25.002539 52.335782 155.141761 1827.413682